Another comment on the JOE FRASER hand
I received the following comment from stealthmunk:
“In the analysis of this hand you are missing a key aspect of Bhoths play. He held the “nut card” in his hand, the Q of diamonds. By smooth calling the flop he could be saying, “I will jam turn card 1. If i still have the nuts 2 . If diamond falls and I can represent the nuts.” He could figure Joe could fold a lone set or a set and a weak flush draw to a full potsize bet on the turn. When the diamond fell on the turn, Bhoth led out with a pot bet. By betting this big, he is forcing Joe to make a play for his stack KNOWING joe couldn’t have the nuts. As anyone who plays plo knows in PLO it is very easy to make the 2nd best hand and lose a lot of $. As it turned out, Joe’s hand was way too strong (2nd nuts) and even if Joe was coolered he had a redraw to a boat, so Bhoths play didn’t work. However, I don’t think Bhoths play was entirely “donkey” or “incorrect” I am no math expert as to the EV on the flop, but the fact that Bhoth held the Qd nut card is essential to the analysis of the hand. Although Bhoth had no fold equity on flop, I think he definitely could have imagined some fold equity on a bricked turn.”
I agree, I should have mentioned that. The dry nut flush card bluff is one of the few pure bluffs that occurs on a regular basis in PLO. I do this on occasion when I hold the dry ace and the flush is completed on the board. However, here’s why I don’t think that play would work.
I don’t think JOE FRASER would repot without something in addition to his flush draw, especially it’s known that he’s not holding the nut flush draw. Also, for Bhoth to flat call a pot and repot with just a nut flush draw is pretty bad… and if Bhoth flopped the nut flush draw and the nut straight, then you might expect Bhoth to repop so as to get the set + dead flush draw to commit all his chips on the flop. As you said, there isn’t much fold equity against a re-potter, so it’s fairly likely the nut straight + nut flush draw will get a call.
However, stealthmunk did make a good point that I left out. I appreciate the comment.
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