Is poker for you? Probably not.
Like many others, I’m a little afraid for all of the new professional poker players out there. It’s not the easy life that many people think it is… Here are all the things you should be thinking about:
You need to beat the game. For a lot.
Why is that hard? Well, in today’s environment, it’s relatively easy to beat the game for a mediocre yearly salary ($50,000-$75,000). If you grind medium limits, there is currently enough bad play to allow you to win that amount every year. But you won’t be able to live very comfortably on $50,000-$75,000 if you want to have a nice house, a nice car, go on vacations, have kids, etc. You’ll need to beat the game for hundreds of thousands per year, which requires that you play at the higher limits online. You’ll need to beat the best in order to beat the game for a good yearly salary. And that’s not easy to do. If you can do that, then you’re likely smart enough to make millions a year in the real world.
Taxes
Once you beat the game, you’ll need to contribute half of those winnings to Uncle Sam. So if you want to have $100K/year, you’ll need to win a lot more than that. And forget “creative” ways of avoiding taxes. It’s going to be hard to hide a full-time salary from the IRS when it’s coming in every year. It’s a lot harder than sneaking a small cashout through the system under the radar. You’re going to have to pay taxes or some big fines when you get audited, there’s no doubt about that.
Legislation
There are currently a number of legal threats to online poker. Some individual states, such as Washington, have made playing online poker a felony. There is a bill in Congress that intends to make poker illegal throughout the US. Of course, some have pointed out that Washington hasn’t put any dollars towards enforcement of the new law, so we have nothing to worry about. But I think those people are missing the point. Just scaring people off will reduce the number of games running by a lot. Let’s make one thing clear: There’s NO way to get rid of online poker. After all, people all over the world are playing on a number of different sites. But a lot of the business you see on the major sites is coming from the US. If legislation gets passed and becomes law, a lot of people will be too scared to continue to play. That will most definitely be a bad thing for anyone hoping to make a living through online poker.
Poker on TV and in the spotlight
There’s no doubt that poker’s popularity is due to the accessibility of the game online and the increased TV coverage that it has received. According to what I’ve read, ESPN is cutting back their WSOP coverage this year. The WPT’s ratings are declining. There’s no doubt that we’ll see less new players entering the game as time goes on. There will always be fish in poker, but less fish means the games will be harder to beat. It also means that the big online tournaments will have smaller prizepools, thereby slowing down the upward path that poker money typically follows (ie, a fish wins a satellite, cashes big in a sunday tournament, then gives it away to 2/4 NL grinders who give it to pros at 10/20 NL). As poker fades from the spotlight and settles into maturity as an online and live gaming experience for people (that is, if online poker is allowed to remain), I think the games will get much harder compared to today. That’s not to say that it won’t be a beatable game as there will ALWAYS be fish, it’s just human nature for people to make mistakes playing poker. But the average level of skill will have to go up over time as less new people enter the game. And that’s a very bad thing for aspiring pros, especially those who aren’t considered to be elite players at the moment.
Rake
People underestimate the effect the rake has on the game. It’s huge. The online poker rooms are pulling in billions as a whole in rake and tournament vigs. It’s very difficult to pull that amount of money out of a system and have it continue to run smoothly. It’s a constant struggle for the poker sites to keep their players playing high enough limits to max out the rake, but not high enough limits to make a lot of people go broke. Let’s say you play $200 sit and goes. According to my stats, most of the “good” players at that level are averaging a 10-15% ROI after rake. So for most of them, 1/3 to 1/2 of what they “extract” from the game goes to the site as rake. That’s a lot.
So to sum it up, first you have to beat the game. Then you have to give a good % of your winnings to rake. Then you have to pay taxes. And after all of that, you need to pay for food, mortgage, cars, college tuition, etc. And you might even want to go on a vacation now and then. On top of all of that, you may be risking going to jail on a felony conviction and the games may get much worse than what you’re used to now. While taking down 5K here and there might seem like a big win, it’s not the type of thing you want to live your life on. So unless you’re one of the very best, which is unlikely, you won’t be able to live comfortably off of poker. I’m not trying to dash anyone’s hopes, but it’s just reality. And if you do attempt to make poker into a career, always have a backup option. Leaving yourself without outs is really really stupid.
Related posts:
- Tilt post about poker forums
- Very bleak future right now
- Hierarchy of Cheating in Poker
- Controversy regarding multiple accounts
- Interview with Ozzy 87/bigslick789
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