Very bleak future right now
I wish I had good news regarding the future of online poker, but I don’t. Everyone knows about the legislation that passed a few days ago making the transfer of funds to online poker sites illegal. Flat out, it’s going to be devastating to the whole poker community, both online and live.
Will online poker continue? Yes, absolutely. PokerStars and others have significant presences in Europe and other non-U.S. areas. There’s a reason why PokerStars essentially created the EPT brand. Online poker will thrive and continue to grow in other countries. I also believe there are plenty of fish in Europe, Canada and Latin America to support at least a decent number of online pros (obviously nothing like the numbers of the last few years though). I believe very few of the current online pros will bother to actually pick up and move to a new country, so I don’t think the games are actually going to get THAT much harder across the middle limits. There will still be beatable poker games but the dead money to be split up among pros will be much much smaller and many marginal pros will be forced out.
But will online poker ever be the same? No, it simply can’t ever be the same. Even if some sites continue to allow US-based players (FTP and Stars hopefully), a huge % of the playing public will be severely put off by having their Party account closed and they’ll likely quit online poker if they run into any problems getting money on other sites. If Stars has to close US accounts, the days of weekly million dollar guarantees will be gone soon enough and the industry will essentially have to start over in other parts of the world.
What does it mean for you and me? If you were a casual player, you basically just lost a hobby and while I feel bad that you can’t enjoy your hobby, the people in really bad shape are the marginal pros who left themselves without a backup plan. Sure, some pros have hundreds of thousands, or millions, of dollars to put to good use in various investments while they figure out what to do. Some live close enough to casinos to supplement their earnings with live winnings. But the vast majority of people living off of online poker were just eeking out a living and this bill will drive them out of the industry. From my perspective, I’m now very glad that I decided to attend law school. Despite really enjoying the subject matter, I do admit that I’ve questioned myself a few times regarding why I would attend school in lieu of my opportunities in the online poker world. As results-oriented as it is, it was obviously a good choice to seek out a good backup plan (not that I even REALLY consider the law a backup plan — more like something that I really really wanted to do but poker was just a tad more desirable).
I will make another post about this when we know more. The big announcement from PokerStars is yet to come — their decision regarding US players will shape the online poker presence in the US and around the world for years to come.
Related posts:
- Is poker for you? Probably not.
- Full Tilt Domain Squatting: They’re Very Weird Dudes
- PokerStars in trouble with Google?
- Woohoo, good news!
- Moving to Grand Cayman
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