More on AP
Alright, a lot of the outside traffic has finally died down, so I can resume normal posting without fear of confusing non-poker people.
First, thank you to everyone who has come forward to thank me for my role in this whole investigation. I appreciate all of the kind words and I was happy to do what I did. In case people haven’t reasoned this out among themselves, here’s why I stepped forward to help solve this cheating:
For the longest time, people have asked me why online poker is safe. I’ve always said that the big sites with significant traffic are safe because the site has way more to lose if found out than they stand to gain via cheating. I actually think a strict EV calculation might tell them *TO* cheat because it wouldn’t be that hard to cover up if they’re careful, but the problem is that it’s a huge gamble and one that most are not willing to take when they’re raking in millions anyway. So, for the first time, this theory was put to the test. Would a site pay dearly for doing this? I wasn’t so sure, but I wanted to do what I could to make sure they did. Not because I have a vendetta against AP or whoever did this (I didn’t know at the time), but because I knew they cheated from seeing the hands and I knew that punishment needed to be dished out on some level. Everyone in the industry saw those hands and everyone knew there was cheating going on. What if another site saw this and saw AP get away from it? Not only would AP not be cleaned up, but it would embolden others to cheat. So that’s why I pursued it, regardless of the negative press for online poker that was sure to follow. In my mind, it was better to take the pain of short term bad press than it was to allow this to go unpunished.
Second, I have to thank all of my sources. A lot of people stepped up to provide me with information. I wish I could name them all by name and and outline what they told me, but that seems like a bad idea (obv). While a lot of people give me credit for discovering a lot of information on this situation, I could not have done it if the information wasn’t provided to me in some shape or form. As many people know, I was some sort of information channel for getting information from the sources and spreading it out via myself and other posters at 2p2 and P5s. Thank you to all who helped in this regard. I did not want to be the sole poster of information for many reasons, a lot of which should be obvious. In addition, other people came up with some terrific information that helped to completely blow the cover off of the attempted cover-up that was happening at AP.
The actual discovery of the info in the file was conducted by a number of people. As I mentioned in my previous post, snagglepuss from 2+2 is the first person I know of to say there was something wrong with those two guys in the file. Haley from PokerNews told me that the email domain was suspect and should be scrutinized. While I was the one to “put it all together” and post about it, other people really helped me to move it along. My blog entry below about the IP evidence might seem like a simple discovery process — it wasn’t. It took a lot of smart people to put all of the pieces together considering the size of the file. It only seems simple when you look back on it and see the whole story.
Third, I just realized this blog is reading like some bad thank you speech. It really isn’t meant to be that. There’s a long way to go here. I’ll move along…
Anyway, a lot of people ask me what I know, what I’ve uncovered, etc, etc. I think it’s important to hold onto a lot of information. I’ve seen a lot of things from sources over the last few weeks. The only reason I even sent any of it to anyone else is because of the general theory that scandalous information is safer in the hands of many than the hands of few. Otherwise, I would have held onto it for the reason that I did not want it to be leaked back to the management of AP what I knew or didn’t know. At the moment, a few people hold copies of the information that I’ve received to ensure it’s safety. But, assuming AP is forthcoming and their statements line up with what I know, I will not release it. It isn’t like I am trying to hold anything over on AP, but I can’t make this too easy to get away from. The current theory is that their now-ousted highly regarded consultant was the source of the lies in the press releases — they will need to prove that to me over time.
I’m sure that the weeks and maybe even months ahead will be very interesting for both AP and online poker in general. I really and genuinely hope that this changes online poker positively going forward. In addition, I firmly believe this week to be the most significant in the history of online poker and I’m honored to have been a part of it.
I’ll be posting a lot more about this subject as time goes on.
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Comments
Nice blog! More people should read it. If you want, you can register your blog http://www.pokerweblogs.com. It is free and and it automatically updates when you do an update, so visitors of our site can see when you updated your blog. The big advantage is that it will attract much more visitors to your blog.
Greets Peter
Quote from 2+2 post>>> “Friend(4:22:49 PM): he was giving me some [censored] about how AP rank players, and sent me a email with a file of the new ap software.”
I have suspected ranking of players for almost a year now. I play short-tables. From PokerTracker, I discovered that both at PokerStars and at UltimateBet the distribution of pocket aces is over two, almost three, standard deviations below the expected value. But what is more interesting is that the number of pairs dealt total is four figures or almost exactly what was expected. Thus, I susspect that I have been handicapped.
Again, unbelievable work.