Hard Knocks
I really love this show. I love how real-time it is and how the players all see the previous episode. It’s amazing how fast they edit it and get it on the air. Not to mention the super-high level of production value (obv, it’s HBO) and the awesome footage. I know that normally I wouldn’t give a second thought to “Richardson cut by Jets” if it wasn’t for Hard Knocks and seeing the behind the scenes of how they got to that point. I know they brought him back one day later but that isn’t really the point. It’s just awesome to see everything play out and get some good behind-the-scenes access.
When reading a thread in P5s OT, someone mentioned that old episodes of Hard Knocks are on Hulu. Keep in mind that until about five months ago, I’d lived outside of the US for over two years. When I moved in January 2008, Hulu was tiny. I think it was online but it certainly didn’t have the same selection of shows. So this is really the first time I’ve ever used it. I watched Season 1 (Baltimore after their Super Bowl win) and I’m partway through Season 2 (1992 Cowboys).
My first impression of Hulu is that it’s awesome. I am excited to order a Boxee box (whenever they finally come out) and get Hulu on my TV with a remote. I know that I can do something with a Mac mini or hook one of my laptops up to the TV but the Boxee box just seems like… way cooler. If there’s anything like that out there now, let me know about it. Oh, and Apple TV sucks so don’t please don’t suggest that. I have one and it’s a doorstop/paperweight.
Another thing I should mention is that Jerry Jones is a total idiot in some ways. I know the guy is super rich, great at marketing his team, etc, etc. But some of his thought processes come out in the Hard Knocks series. Like in this episode at about the 8:10 mark he starts talking about how Quincy Carter is good because: they are both libras, they share a birthday, etc. He also makes a fair number of really dumb other remarks (“I think we could have two pro bowl quarterbacks”) but those are a little more excusable. This sort of thought process really reminds me of poker player superstitions. If Jerry Jones were playing cards, I could easily see him be like “I’m going to hit this draw because the last time I was drinking whiskey neat on the rocks I was hitting every draw”. Or something similar.
I really wonder how much retarded thinking goes on in football. We already know that coaches make poor decisions about whether to go for it on fourth down on the goal line. While there are a few exceptions, NFL coaches seem way more concerned with doing whatever is “standard” than they care about math. It really makes me think that while these guys might know football well (ie, the best way to tackle someone or w/e) they lack the basic analytical skills to make proper rational decisions. Do we have a bunch of math donkeys running a league that really comes down to math in the end? At the end of the day, it’s about points and whatever is mathematically more likely to have you end up with more points is the way to go (with the exception of some end-game clock strategy stuff).
One thing I really like is the “Moneyball” way of thinking described in Michael Lewis’ highly-regarded 2003 book. These guys totally turned baseball’s old way of “gut feelings” upside down and really revolutionized how front offices are run. I know that some front offices are different (ie, the Yankees indiscriminately fling money around like a monkey flings poo around) but many baseball clubs now have a much more analytical approach. Obviously Moneyball has inspired a lot of football sabermetricians but I’m not really so sure that it has really gotten much headway in terms of breaking into the football establishment. As I look around the league, a lot of the same old faces are still running teams. At least some guys like Belichick have the balls to ask for help from the math guys. But I don’t get the feeling that it’s too common around the league.
At the end of the day, I get the feeling most coaches are just kind of stuck in old-school groupthink when it comes to making a decision in the heat of the moment. And that’s sad.
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Great post. Haven’t checked out Hard Knocks yet, but will. You kind of perfectly summed up how I feel about NFL coaches/management. They might be a bit more savvy than you’re giving them credit for though. Check out The Blind Side (another Michael Lewis book). If you can wade through all of the touching Michael Oher stuff, there’s some pretty good insight into how front offices think and adjust to strategy changes in the game, but it definitely leaves you with the impression that there’s room to improve (and plenty of it). Baseball teams should be managed by geeky math kids and football teams should be managed by mostly the same (with the aid of some of the old-school guys for help on training/motivating their even-more-stupid players).
Cory Albertson
September 8, 2010
I think you’re giving NFL coaches less credit than they deserve. Most of these guys are ferociously competitive and will take advice from everyone, including the analytical/math types. Of course there are some traditional stiffs in the league, but I’d wildly estimate at least half have solid analytical understanding of strategy. The problem lies in job security and criticism from management and fans. Similar to policiticians, coaches would rather keep their job and not deal with critiicism than to truly give their team the best chance to win.
Often times, similar to poker, you increase your chances of winning by adopting risky strategies. In football, coaches are generally far too conservative in these circumstances (going for it on fourth down, going for onside kicks, playing for interceptions, throwing deep on 1st and 10, etc.). If you are someone like Belichick it might be easier to take these risky actions as you’re not going to lose your job if you take a correct risky action but end up looking like an idiot, but most coaches don’t get a big enough sample size for these correct risky actions to manifest themselves to the public.
niffe9
September 10, 2010
Totally correct regarding NFL coaches behind the times in terms of deploying EV calculations in game situations. However, a coach who chooses to buck the trend will face huge obstacles in overcoming Joe Average Fan’s lack of understanding the underlying math. Given the small sample size (limited decisions each game to employ the strategy and small number of games (16 in NFL)), the coach risks his future job status every time he goes against the grain.
Nole91
September 10, 2010